Larger turbines to push down wind energy prices
Date: 12-Nov-01
Country: DENMARK
Author: Birgitte Dyrekilde
"To improve turbines' efficiency we are improving design and production, turbines will eventually become bigger," said technical manager Mogens Filtenborg at Vestas.
Danish Vestass Wind Systems and its partly-owned Spanish turbine firm Gamesa Eolica are leaders with a 32 percent world market share.
At present the top-five turbine makers sell turbines of up to 2.5 megawatts.
Vestas and the third-biggest turbine maker Danish NEG Micon plan to initiate commercial production of 3 MW turbines by 2004, while privately-owned German Enercon, the world's number two turbine maker, will install one 4.5 megawatt prototype turbine next year and is mulling starting up commercial production after that, a spokesman said.
For competitive reasons turbine manufacturers only talk cautiously about future turbine projects.
"In the next generation of turbines, we will see even bigger generators and the development of 5 and 6 megawatt turbines is very likely, but I cannot elaborate," Vestas' Filtenborg said.
NEG Micon participates in a Dutch development project, Dutch Offshore Wind Energy Converter (DOWEC), developing turbines of up to 6 megawatts for offshore projects.
TURBINES SHOOT UP
Over the past 20 years turbines have grown from less than 100 kilowatts up to today's 2,500 kilowatts or 2.5 megawatts.
"Basically, efficiency has increased with the help of larger turbines and I believe this development will continue," said Flemming Rasmussen, aero electricity department chief at Risoe National Laboratory, run by Denmark's Ministry of Information Technology and Research.
"If the trend continues, I believe we will see 10 megawatt wind turbines by 2010," Rasmussen added.
Such huge turbines would primarily be suitable for offshore parks or desolate areas, he said.
To improve efficiency, turbine makers also closely watch production and prices for sub-components.
"In order to lower costs we work on improving production. We take more of the work ourselves - like our blade production - instead of purchasing from outside suppliers," Filtenborg said.
Only last week, Danish private-owned turbine firm Bonus, followed this strategy with plans to initiate its own blade production. So far Bonus has been dependent on supplies from leading Danish blade maker LM Glasfiber, owned by Britain's Doughty Hanson & Co.
WIND POWER STILL EXPENSIVE
The infant wind power industry, which has seriously taken off over the past 10 years in a move to fight global warming, is still heavily dependent on government subsidies.
Poul Erik Morthorst, Research Manager at Risoe National Laboratory, said electricity from wind turbines placed on fair onshore wind sites cost 25-30 oere ($0.03-0.036) per kilowatt hour (kw/h) compared to just over 20 oere per kw/h for coal and gas.
"It's difficult for wind energy to keep up with coal and gas, but in five to seven years I believe wind energy will be competitive and prices will have fallen to 20-25 oere per kw/h," he said.
Vestas aims at reducing costs to 20 oere per kw/h within one or two years. Turbine makers say the most efficient turbines at present are 850-900 kilowatt turbines, but that their size will increase over coming years.
"It takes some time to get production up and running at an optimal level and technology can still be improved for large turbines. We need more experience," said NEG Micon Chief Executive Torben Bjerre-Madsen.
