ANALYSIS - Kyoto coalition seen safe from Bush's climate plan
Date: 18-Feb-02
Country: EU
Author: Robin Pomeroy
President George W. Bush pulled out of Kyoto, the United Nations pact agreed in 1997, last year, saying it would harm the U.S. economy. At the time, many people believed the treaty would shrivel and die without the support of the world's biggest polluter.
The United States emits one third of the developed world's manmade greenhouse gases. To come into force, Kyoto must be ratified by countries producing at least 55 percent - requiring support from almost all major economies in Washington's absence.
Supporters of the pact feared that when Bush revealed his alternative climate strategy it would cause other nations to abandon their Kyoto commitments.
But the European Union used a combination of diplomatic clout and shameless concessions at U.N. talks in Germany and Morocco last year to persuade key potential waiverers Russia and Japan to stick with Kyoto and isolate the United States.
But with a U.S. climate strategy now on the table - Bush has proposed slowing down the growth in emissions, rather than an actual cut as agreed at Kyoto - and as most countries have yet to ratify Kyoto, will the EU-led coalition hold?
JAPAN STILL KEY
Analysts said it was unlikely countries would dump Kyoto in preference for a Bush-style approach.
"The crucial countries are going to be Japan and Canada, and there's essentially nothing on offer here for them," Rob Bradley of Climate Network Europe, a group campaigning for action against global warming, said.
"The U.S. could have posed that danger if it had come out with a more credible plan. It would be very difficult for any country that had previously made positive noises about the Kyoto protocol to turn around and take this seriously."
Kyoto requires developed countries to cut their emissions of the "greenhouse gases" blamed for causing global warming, particularly carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, by an average of five percent of 1990 levels by 2012.
Green groups believe the U.S. strategy would allow U.S. emissions to rise by 29 percent above 1990 levels by the end of the decade, rather than the seven percent cut Washington agreed to in Kyoto.
Bush is due to meet Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Tokyo on Monday as part of a tour of the region where the war on terrorism is likely to dominate the agenda, but where global warming may well also be discussed.
"It's bound to be mentioned and Japan is such a key country," Bradley said. He said it would be a diplomatic coup for Bush if he could bring the Japanese around to backing away from the Kyoto Protocol. But Bradley added: "It would be an outrage if Japan were to do that now."
Initial reaction from Japan suggests it is unimpressed by the White House strategy. Environment Minister Hiroshi Oki said: "It's not as if we are extremely happy with it."
Russia, whose emissions have dropped sharply since 1990, is considered a safe supporter of Kyoto as it will be able to sell those extra emissions to other countries struggling to meet their targets.
NOT FOR EXPORT
Paul Metz of the European Business Council for a Sustainable Energy Future said the Bush strategy lacked an international aspect and had nothing to either deter countries from Kyoto or allow them to link up with the U.S. policy.
"Bush should have made a much more far-reaching and international proposal. This (policy) is absolutely not for export and I would be very surprised if it had any impact on (Kyoto) ratification by other countries."
Thomas Legge, a climate policy expert at independent think-tank Centre for European Policy Studies, agreed.
"I don't think that the Bush plan is either substantial enough in terms of emissions cuts or international enough to offer an alternative to waivering countries like Japan where there is political momentum behind ratification."
But the Bush plan did not exclude some kind of cooperation with the United States' close neighbours on greenhouse gas abatement, Legge said.
"Anything t
