Bush oil drilling plan facing Senate defeat - survey
Date: 22-Mar-02
Country: USA
Author: Tom Doggett and Chris Baltimore
Fifty senators, including five Republicans, said they are opposed to drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, according to the poll.
Despite intensive lobbying by the Teamsters labor union, which favors drilling for the thousands of jobs it would create, only 40 senators surveyed by Reuters were willing to go on record in support of Arctic drilling.
Ten senators said they were undecided.
However, even if pro-drilling forces were able to win over all 10 undecided senators, they would still far fall short of the 60 votes needed to end a promised filibuster by Democrats opposed to opening the refuge.
Under the Senate's rules for dealing with controversial measures, 60 votes are needed in the 100-member chamber to cut off debate and allow a vote.
Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle said yesterday he is ready to force a showdown on the matter when lawmakers return on April 8 from their two-week spring recess.
The vote looms as a key battle in the debate over U.S. energy policy as senators decide how to boost domestic energy supplies yet still protect the environment. It could also surface in the November election campaigns of some senators.
The refuge, which holds a potential 16 billion barrels of oil, is deemed critical by the White House to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign crude. Environmentalists and Senate Democrats want to keep the refuge closed to protect polar bears, migratory birds and wildlife.
The remote wildlife refuge, stretching over 19 million acres (7.7 million hectares), is located on Alaska's north coast. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration said recently that it would take about two decades before crude oil from the Arctic refuge could reduce U.S. imports.
10 UNDECIDED SENATORS
If the Senate is able to pass a broad energy bill, it must still work out differences with energy legislation passed by the Republican-controlled House last year. The House bill won overwhelming support for drilling in the Arctic refuge, due in part to the strong lobbying arm of labor.
The Reuters poll showed five Democrats would cross party lines to vote for drilling. The same number of Republicans said they would go against their party and oppose drilling.
Republican vote counters said they expected to pick up eight or nine of the 10 undecided senators, but that still falls short of the number needed to get the issue to a vote.
Undecided lawmakers include two Democrats: Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Robert Byrd of West Virginia.
The undecided Republicans are John McCain of Arizona, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Richard Lugar of Indiana, John Ensign of Nevada, Sam Brownback of Kansas, Pat Roberts of Kansas and Strom Thurmond of South Carolina.
Analysts said McCain and Specter might cross party lines and vote against drilling.
"You just never know with McCain because he's a gadfly," said Andy Laperriere, a political analyst with the ISI Group. "Specter tends to be more liberal but the unions matter in his home state of Pennsylvania and he often votes with the Republican leadership in a pinch."
Other undecided senators in the spotlight are Democrats Lincoln and Byrd.
Lincoln, a first-term senator from Arkansas who has focused on farm issues, could come under pressure to go with her party and vote against drilling. "I don't plan on making a decision on (drilling) until it comes up for a debate," she said.
Byrd, a senator since 1959, represents the energy-producing state of West Virginia where labor unions are important.
The Teamsters, which sees the issue as a crucial vote for its interests, plans to step up lobbying during the two-week congressional break. "We will remember in November," said Teamsters President James Hoffa recently, referring to the Nov. 5 congressional election date.