"Fossil fuels will still dominate," IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference. "Even with these alternative policies (on renewables) we don't reach the Kyoto targets."

Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the EU has to reduce its emissions of the greenhouse gases blamed for causing global warming by eight percent of 1990 levels by 2012. The most important of these gases is carbon dioxide (CO2), which is emitted during fuel combustion.

According to the IEA, the EU emitted around 3,080 million tonnes of CO2 in 1990. This would rise to 3,146 million tonnes in 2010 and to 3,829 by 2030 without any new "green" policies.

With new policies on renewable energy, emissions would be 4.9 percent less than that "business as usual" case by 2010, but would still be up from the 1990 level, according to the IEA.

Emissions would be 19 percent less than the 2030 business as usual prediction, still a rise over all.

Fatih said the reason was a large rise in demand for transport, which mostly runs on oil products, and the fact traditional electricity plants had a long life span and would not be replaced overnight.

"If governments want to do something they have to act not only radically but also as soon as possible," he said, adding that a move towards renewables offered not only some scope to reduce emissions but also reduced reliance on energy imports.

European Commission environment spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen was upbeat about reaching Kyoto targets.

"We still believe that the EU can meet its target, but we need to implement key elements of the European climate change programme," she told Reuters.