FEATURE - Will the neon lights go out in Tokyo?
Date: 22-Nov-02
Country: JAPAN
Author: Miho Yoshikawa
If they're really unlucky, the city's bright neon lights may dim and residents may swelter without air-conditioning next summer.
The capital of the world's second-largest economy could face a power crunch in coming months as its largest utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc (TEPCO), struggles to keep supplies flowing with more than half of its nuclear capacity shut for checks.
TEPCO President Tsunehisa Katsumata said on Tuesday he believed his company had secured enough supply to cover winter demand.
There is still some concern, however, that TEPCO may not be fully equipped to cover a spike in demand should the winter turn out to be exceptionally cold.
"Much will depend on temperatures in winter," Katsumata said.
Fears of a power crunch will heighten with the approach of summer when power demand typically soars.
"If the current situation continues, supply could become quite critical during the summer peak demand season," said Mitsubishi Securities senior utilities analyst Tadatoshi Utaka.
Nine nuclear plants, supplying almost half of TEPCO's nuclear generation capacity, have been shut, six for safety checks because of controversial past inspections.
Four more reactors will close down for checks next January and February, and TEPCO may move forward the maintenance schedule of two other reactors.
This will mean that a maximum of 15 of TEPCO's 17 nuclear reactors could be shut down early next year - a major issue for a country that relies on nuclear power for a third of its energy.
Tokyo's plight is different from the last well-publicised power crisis in 2000, when California suffered rolling blackouts as demand outpaced capacity and the newly liberalised market fell into chaos.
Japan's potential energy crunch is based on allegations that TEPCO falsified nuclear safety records in the 1980s and 1990s.
The company has admitted to some regulatory breaches.
TEPCO, which supplies the heavily industrialised Tokyo area, has begun cranking up mothballed thermal generating units to make up for some of the lost capacity but will close another four nuclear units in February for regular maintenance.
But TEPCO vice-president Ryoichi Shirato said last month that power supplies were tight.
"...We could see a significant impact if the winter is cold," Shirato told a news conference in late October. "(The situation will be) totally insufficient for the summer."
"The magnitude of the generating capacity taken off line is vast," said report on the crisis by Boston-based Energy Security Analysis Inc.
SCANDALS HIT CONFIDENCE
Japan is no stranger to nuclear scandals and public support for the industry has fallen away over the last decade after a string of accidents.
In the worst incident, in 1999, an uncontrolled nuclear chain reaction was triggered at a uranium processing plant in Tokaimura, north of Tokyo. Two workers died.
TEPCO's nine shut reactors provide about 8.63 gigawatts (gW) of power, or roughly 14.6 percent of TEPCO's total output.
The restart of oil-fired thermal plants will add about 4.13 gW to supply but the company's costs will rise as it has to buy extra fuel - Japan has little by way of energy resources and is virtually entirely dependent on imported crude oil and gas.
TEPCO said on Tuesday, when it announced its half year earnings, that extra costs from the shutdown of nuclear reactors are likely to amount to 140 billion yen ($1.14 billion) for the year to end-March.
Of this, about 130 billion yen stems from fuel procurement costs for thermal power plants.
Analysts say TEPCO will likely survive through winter unless temperatures turn exceptionally frigid. The real test will come in the summer when power demand shoots up for air-conditioning.
TEPCO is uncertain when it may be able to restart any of the nuclear units and analysts say it may face public as well as regulatory resistance to bring plants back on line.
It started shutdowns in early September after