Scientists and industry officials familiar with the country's
bio-technology sector say that is not just possible, but likely.To ensure food security for its 1.3 billion people, Beijing has
injected large sums of public money into agricultural biotechnology
research since the 1980s. China's plan appears to have two sides: push
forward fast on GM foods which offer high yield, and resistance to
disease, while promoting GM-free areas for crops for sale to rich
export markets, where many consumers still reject the idea of
genetically modified food.
China is now emerging as a global leader in some areas of technology.
This year, scientists estimate it planted insect-resistant cotton on
2.2 million hectares of land, almost twice the size of Belgium, or 53
percent of the total cotton acreage in China, the world's top cotton
producer.
"China is developing the largest plant biotechnology capacity outside
of North America," scientists Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, Carl Pray
and Qinfang Wang said in a joint article published in Science magazine
earlier this year.
"Poor farmers in China are cultivating more area of genetically
modified plants than are small farmers in any other developing
country," they say.
Huang from the Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy in Beijing said
publicly-funded scientists were now working on nearly 60 crops, many
of them ignored by western researchers who focus on a handful of
plants.
"I believe China is now the leading country in (GM) rice and cotton. I
think it will be also the case for some other food crops, such as
peanuts, in five to 10 years," he said in a telephone interview with
Reuters
CHINESE DILEMMA
But China faces a dilemma as consumers in its top trading partners,
like the European Union, Japan and South Korea, are worried over the
safety of GM crops, dubbed "Frankenstein food" because of fears that
they may create mutation or diseases as yet unknown.
China fears such countries may reject its farm products unless it
keeps GM crops under control, analysts say. But strong operations
management has never been China's strength, nor law enforcement in a
vast country where corruption and rural poverty remain endemic.
"They are concerned about their ability to continue to export," said a
foreign diplomat in Beijing. "Once it (GM crops) is out there, there's
no way of putting it back into the bottle."
So far, Beijing has approved commercialisation of only a few GM crops,
such as cotton, tomatoes, sweet peppers and petunias.
It has also introduced a new set of rules, slowing down approval
procedures, while restricting its own trade in GM organisms (GMOs),
such as soybeans from the United States.
Monsanto Co (MON.N), the U.S. biotech and seed group, has so far
applied in vain for commercialisation of its insect-resistant BT corn
in the past three to four years, said John Killmer, president of
Monsanto China based in Beijing.
"Each time, it seems there are new reasons (for rejection). I believe
that in general there is administrative and government guidance not to
approve insect resistance corn," Killmer said.
Some say Beijing has also put on hold commercialisation of Chinese GM
herbicide-resistant rice, which had already passed the safety
evaluation for environmental release.
China learned from bitter experience with its GM virus-resistant
tobacco, officials say. It had to withdraw it from the market a few
years after commercialisation in 1992 because of pressure from a major
international tobacco importer.
Referring to the rules, the industry officials say China seems to have
decided to wait and see how international consensus develops, while
building up control mechanisms at home.
GMO PIRATES?
Though there is no firm evidence, there are industry rumours that
farmers are growing GM varieties beyond those approved by
Beijing.Industry officials say it would not be a surprise, given how
fast insect-resis