Scientists Say Warming Could Cut Crops
Date: 03-Oct-03
Country: RUSSIA
Author: Alister Doyle
About 1,000 scientists at a World Climate Change Conference in Moscow ending on Friday were sharply divided over Putin's belief that Russians could benefit overall from a world with less bone-chilling winters.
But some experts say that agricultural output in the key southern grain areas could be hit by a forecast decline in rains even though a warmer climate will extend growing areas further north as the permafrost thaws in Siberia.
"Climate change will generally not benefit Russia," said Joseph Alcamo of the University of Kassel in Germany. Harvests in the south might be hit by more frequent droughts, he added.
Oleg Sirotenko of the All Russian Institute for Agricultural Meteorology said that Russian grain harvests would dip by about two percent in 2020-30 from current levels due to disruptions from global warming.
Fodder crops, however, would benefit, he added.
Putin said on Monday that he needed more time to decide whether to ratify the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, which hinges on Russian ratification to take effect.
Kyoto seeks to rein in emissions of gases like carbon dioxide released by cars and factories. The gases are blamed for blanketing the planet and driving up temperatures.
And Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Emergencies Minister, said that climate change was likely to trigger more floods, forest fires and industrial emergencies. He said that thawing permafrost in Russia's north would destabilize buildings.
But others said that Kyoto is based on dubious science.
"I believe that the Kyoto Protocol was developed without sufficient scientific basis," said Yuri Izrael, director of Russia's climate institute.
Russia faces a choice between backing Kyoto along with its main trading partners in the European Union, or rejecting it like the United States. Kyoto will not enter into force without Russia's approval.
With bewildering predictions of the impact of Kyoto, Putin may instead be holding out for guarantees of cash from the EU and Japan.
Russia's smokestack industries have collapsed since Kyoto's baseline year of 1990, meaning that its emissions have fallen 30 percent when other rich nations are facing costly curbs.
Russia can hope to export some of its spare quotas in a market that could be worth billions of dollars a year, though a U.S. pullout has undermined likely prices.
And Russia may be worried that a shift to renewable energies under Kyoto would undermine the value of its oil and gas exports. Russia is the world's biggest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia.
Russia has a veto on Kyoto because the pact will only enter into force if nations representing 55 percent of the emissions by developed nations sign up. So far, countries representing 44 percent have ratified, Russia has a 17 percent stake and the United States 36 percent.
