US Winter to Be Volatile, Trigger Shifts in Demand
Date: 11-Nov-03
Country: USA
Author: Richard Valdmanis
Four out of six weather-watchers surveyed by Reuters predicted this winter would be slightly warmer than last year. But it will be punctuated by wild swings in temperature due to the absence of a strong El Nino or La Nina in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is an abnormal warming of the waters in the equatorial Pacific. It usually leads to a mild winter in the United States. The last severe El Nino occurred in the winter of 1997-1998, causing drought in Australia and Indonesia and flooding in Ecuador and Peru.
La Nina is the exact opposite. It often follows El Nino, which means "Christ Child" in Spanish and got its name from South American anchovies fishermen who first noticed its appearance at Christmastime.
"We're going to see outstanding cold spells throughout the U.S., balanced by unseasonable warmth," said AccuWeather senior forecaster Joe Bastardi.
"Our forecast emphasizes volatility, including cold snaps in the Northeast, and colder-than-normal weather in the Midwest and Plains," said Matt Rogers, manager of energy weather for EarthSat in Maryland.
While the consensus view that this winter will not be as cold as last year is soothing to consumers tired of sky-high fuel prices, cold snaps can cause supply crunches and, as a result, price spikes.
Last year, a stretch of abnormally frigid temperatures struck the Northeast and pushed residential heating oil prices up to a record high near $2 a gallon as suppliers scrambled to meet the quick jump in demand.
So far this year, mild weather in the Northeast has helped oil suppliers build up stocks of heating oil, while cold in the West has lit a fire under natural gas prices.
The U.S. Department of Energy forecast an average price for residential heating oil of $1.315 a gallon through fourth-quarter 2003 and first-quarter 2004, sharply lower than current prices of roughly $1.38.
The department also predicted an average price for natural gas of $9.20 per thousand cubic feet.
Worries over fuel supply have been heightened by a cut in OPEC output of 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 3.5 percent, which went into effect on Nov 1. The oil cartel, which controls 40 percent of world exports, will meet again Dec 4 to discuss output.
Forecasters had differing views of what Mother Nature would bring this winter to the Northeast, the world's largest heating oil user. Their predictions ran the gamut from above-normal to near-normal to below-normal temperatures.
Most agreed on wide swings in temperature and precipitation.
The U.S. Midwest, a natural-gas consumption hub, was expected to be snowier and colder than normal on average. The southern half of the country was forecast to be warmer than normal.
Craig Solberg, forecaster for Freese-Notis, predicted November would average colder than normal in the West and warmer than normal in the East, continuing the current trend.
Both AccuWeather and EarthSat forecasters predicted December could be the coldest month of the winter compared to the average.
From the West and central U.S., cold weather is likely to shift eastward later in the winter, following snowfall patterns. That could give the Northeast a chance for prolonged below-normal temperatures toward the end of the season, said Scott Yuknis of Meteorlogix.
U.S. heating oil inventories last week fell 1.4 million barrels to 56.8 million barrels, putting them 800,000 barrels higher than a year ago, according to the latest government data. Inventories on the East Coast, where most U.S. heating oil is burned, were 10 percent below the 5-year average, however.
Below is a list of U.S. weather outlook summaries:
AccuWeather: Winter will average slightly warmer than last year. Wild swings in temperature are expected. The East will be biased cold, the West will be biased warm. December could be coldest month compared to average.
EarthSat: Volatility in temperature and precipitation likely. Midcontinent will average colder than norm