Atlantic Storm Forecast Lowered to 7 Hurricanes
Date: 04-Aug-06
Country: US
Author: Jim Loney
The new forecast could provide some relief to storm-weary residents of the Caribbean basin and the US East and Gulf coasts who suffered through a record-shattering 28 tropical storms and hurricanes last year. That number beat the old mark of 21 set in 1933.
In its August forecast update, the Colorado State University team formed by researcher William Gray said the June to November season would produce seven, not nine, hurricanes and that three of those would be "intense," down from five in the earlier forecast.
It predicted 15 tropical storms, down from a May forecast of 17.
Intense hurricanes, like last year's Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis, have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour and are capable of causing serious damage.
The Atlantic season has produced only three tropical storms so far. The latest, Chris, was fading as it moved north of Puerto Rico on Thursday.
The forecast was lowered in part because tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not quite as warm as expected and eastern Pacific waters are warming, the researchers said in a statement.
Hurricanes draw their energy from warm Atlantic waters, while warming temperatures in the equatorial Pacific tend to dampen Atlantic hurricane activity.
In addition, Atlantic surface pressures are not quite as low and trade winds are slightly stronger, said Gray, whose extensive hurricane forecasts are closely watched by financial markets.
"We're not reducing the number of hurricanes because we had only two named storms through late July," Gray said. "It's a general erosion of a number of factors."
Private weather forecaster WSI Corp. lowered its forecast this week from 15 to 14 storms, citing in part an increased chance of an "El Nino," the warm-water phenomenon in the eastern Pacific.
Both forecasts were still well above the long-term Atlantic average of about 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.
The Colorado State University team said activity was likely to ramp up in August, with four storms. It said three would likely be hurricanes and one of those would be intense.
The forecast also contained a hint of good news for the beleaguered US oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico, where last year's storms shut down a quarter of US crude production.
"This year it looks like the East Coast is more likely to be targeted by Atlantic basin hurricanes than the Gulf Coast," said Gray's forecasting partner, Philip Klotzbach.
The 2005 season will be remembered for producing, for the first time since hurricane record-keeping began, four Category 5 storms, the highest rank on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.
Katrina, which burst the levees protecting New Orleans, killed more than 1,300 people and caused more than US$80 billion in damage, becoming the costliest natural disaster in US history.
Climate researchers believe the Atlantic basin has moved into an extended period of heightened hurricane activity that began around 1995 and could last 25 to 40 years.