"To get to such a different system and to do it quickly is going to take
tremendous levels of investment, major policy changes and a willingness
to change," Christopher Flavin of the U.S.-based environmental
consultancy Worldwatch Institute said."The challenge is one that is a radical one," he said. "It is finding an
economical means of turning abundant but dispersed renewable energy into
useful modern fuels."
Emphasising the limits to reserves of oil, natural gas and coal and the
pollution those fuels cause, speakers at the environmental group's
fourth annual conference said technology for solar and wind power was
available or would be soon.
But the development of renewable energy was trapped in a vicious circle
of high prices, low demand and small-scale production, they added.
Michael Langman of accountancy firm KPMG's economic research unit in the
Netherlands, which wrote a Greenpeace-commissioned report on solar power
in August, said energy from the sun was economically feasible but could
not yet compete on cost.
"Electricity generated from solar panels costs four to five times as
much as the electricity that's taken from the grid," Langman said.
"For the price to solar panels to become competitive, a breakthrough is
needed in production of solar cells - and that breakthrough can only be
expected if solar panels are produced on a much larger scale."
VICIOUS CIRCLE
Karl Mallon, Greenpeace's director of energy solutions, said politicians
and business leaders could break the vicious circle by embracing change
and leading the charge.
"The government can pull down the price, industry can push down the
price," he said.
Wind-powered turbines would account for 13,000 megawatts (MW) of
electricity globally by the end of 1999, Flavin said, adding that
developments in lightweight materials, aerodynamics and electronics
would boost that figure and bring down costs.
Solar power is a much smaller source of power at only about 160 MW a
year, he said.
Global energy giants such as Enron and Royal Dutch/Shell have made
forays into renewable energy, but Flavin said the technology was being
driven by small and medium-sized companies.
But because the wind and the sun are available to all countries, the
traditional power bases of oil-producing states would eventually break
down, he said.
"Increasingly we are going to find that there is going to be an
international competition to embrace and take advantage of the new
technology," Flavin said.
"It's not at all clear who is going to be in the lead."
The problem of storing and transporting the power produced by wind and
solar sources would be tackled once electro-chemical fuel cells - which
Flavin called the silicon chip of the next energy age - were more
sophisticated and widespread.
Natural gas would be the "bridge fuel" that would allow the transition
from fossil fuels to renewable energy, Flavin said.