Italy Energy Demand Seen up 2 Pct in 2007 - UP
Date: 20-Apr-07
Country: ITALY
Author: Svetlana Kovalyova
"In 2007 we will not see a great increase in energy consumption... We will have consumption of about 195-196 million tonnes of oil equivalent," Pasquale De Vita, chairman of the UP industry body, told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.
The association represents major national and foreign refiners and oil product distributors operating in Italy.
The country, with scarce natural resources, relies on energy imports to cover 80-90 percent of its needs. Its primary energy demand was about 192 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2006.
De Vita said diesel consumption is expected to rise 2-3 percent this year -- from 30.5 million tonnes in 2006 -- driven by an increasing number of diesel-fuelled new cars and growing industrial transport use as the economy picks up.
By contrast, petrol consumption is expected to fall slightly this year but the decline will be smaller than last year, when it fell 6 percent to 12.7 million tonnes, he said.
Italy is self-sufficient in oil products and exports about 30 million tonnes of them a year, mostly to the United States.
Fuel oil demand will continue to fall in Italy because natural gas has been replacing it in power generation, and will drop about 5 to 6 percent this year, De Vita said.
According to UP data, total consumption of oil products in Italy fell 12 percent to 20.3 million tonnes in the first quarter of this year, pushed down by a 64 percent slump in fuel oil use as warm weather reduced demand from power stations.
Petrol use fell 6 percent in the first three months of 2007 to 2.8 million tonnes, while motor diesel consumption rose 2.3 percent to 6.3 million tonnes as diesel-fuelled cars accounted for 55.7 percent of total new cars registered in the period.
De Vita said the industry will invest heavily this year to boost efficiency and energy savings.
"Saving is the most important alternative source of energy," he said in the telephone interview.
LOOKING AT 2020
Looking ahead to 2020, UP has forecast a steady rise of a total primary energy demand to 201 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2015 and 204.1 million tonnes in 2020 from 197.7 million tonnes in 2010, with natural gas overtaking oil as the main energy source in 2013.
But the share of oil products demand in the total energy demand is expected to fall to 35.3 percent in 2020 from 44.1 percent in 2006, UP said in a report published earlier this week on its Website www.unionepetrolifera.it
Energy use patterns are set to change over years as renewable energy sources gain prominence, people travel more by public transport and more cargo is shipped by sea or railways, the report said.
Petrol demand is expected to decline over years while diesel consumption is seen rising until 2010 but then falling back. Total demand for car fuels is seen on the rise until 2010 but then declining, UP has forecast.
Fuel oil demand is seen gradually falling as it will cede a key role in power generation to gas, coal and other energy sources.
UP expects carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to rise, fuelled by an increasing use of coal for power generation, until they stabilise in 2010. In 2015, CO2 emissions are seen 14 percent above the 1990 levels -- well above the Kyoto Protocol targets.
World oil prices which shot to record highs in 2006, are seen at around US$50-60 per barrel this year, then falling to US$45-55 per barrel by the end of 2009 and dropping further, to US$40-45 a barrel in 2010-2020, all at constant exchange rates.