Warm Start to Summer Expected in NZ, Drier in South
Date: 01-Nov-07
Country: NEW ZEALAND
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) said drier conditions were expected in the South Island, while more rainfall could be likely in the North Island during the November-January period.
"Nina conditions are well established in the central and eastern Pacific. As a result, normal or above normal rainfall is expected in the north of the country, and normal or below normal rainfall in much of the South Island," NIWA said in its climate outlook.
La Nina is the opposite of the better-known El Nino pattern, causing colder-than-average sea temperatures in the far eastern Pacific.
The La Nina pattern can lead to drought conditions in the western United States and Latin America, and rain, storms and flooding in Asia and the south-western Pacific, including parts of Australia and New Zealand.
NIWA said there is about a 90 percent chance of the La Nina conditions persisting in the Pacific through to the end of summer.
La Nina last occurred from 1998 to 2001, resulting in drought in much of the western United States.
NIWA said temperatures were expected to be average or warmer for much of the country, while the usual westerly winds that buffet the country during the period are likely to be weaker and less frequent than normal.
Weather is an important factor for the New Zealand economy, given that agricultural production accounts for nearly half of the country's NZ$35 billion (US$26.7 billion) annual export earnings.
It is also important for power generation, with hydro electricity supplying around two-thirds of New Zealand's power.
(US$1=NZ$1.31)