Kyoto deal seen possible despite Bush position
Date: 23-Mar-01
Country: NETHERLANDS
Michael Grubb, Professor of Climate Change and Energy Policy at Britain's Imperial College, told a European energy conference on Wednesday that Bush's position in a letter of March 13 that "Climate change needs to be taken seriously but Kyoto is unfair to America" should not be taken in isolation.
In the letter, to Nebraska Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, Bush also said that, contrary to a campaign pledge, he will not seek to impose mandatory emissions reductions for carbon dioxide (CO2) on power plants.
The Kyoto Protocol, which failed to be ratified last year, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which some but not all climate scientists believe are responsible for global warming. CO2 is the most important of these.
"There is support (for the protocol) from senior staff - Powell, O'Neill and Whitman," said Grubb. "Whitman at a G8 meeting said the U.S. supported the goals of Kyoto and the U.S. review did not represent a backing away from Kyoto".
Christine Whitman is head of the U.S. Environment Agency, Paul O'Neill is Treasury Secretary and Colin Powell is Secretary of State.
The 6th Conference of Parties (COP-6) talks held at The Hague in The Netherlands failed last November when the EU and the U.S. disagreed over Washington's insistence that countries be allowed to offset carbon dioxide absorbed by forests and farmlands - so called carbon sinks - against Kyoto targets.
But Grubb said prospects at a resumed COP-6 at Bonn, Germany in July may not be as bleak.
"The failure at The Hague was a shock to the system and it will have produced a new realism", he said.
Grubb said the Kyoto treaty was both technically feasible and that a deal at a resumed COP-6 was politically possible.
"All countries will be seeking a deal and none more so than the Russians. They see real benefits for themselves," he said adding "Bush will find it hard not to talk".
The professor also said it was possible for Kyoto to be ratified without the U.S. although no-one wanted to exclude the country responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions.