The crop losses - worth more than A$1.5 billion (US$795 million) in export revenue - are equivalent to the amount the island continent normally exports to Asia in a full year.

Southeast Asia, meanwhile, is bracing for deepening drought. Asian precautions are being spurred by memories of the El Nino of 1997/98, which caused famine that killed several hundred people in the remote Papua New Guinea highlands, and spread drought through the region. That contributed to a global cost estimated at US$34 billion, with 24,000 deaths and six million people displaced.

"Whether drought leads to loss of life through famine will depend on the intensity...(and) on the state of preparedness of the country," Michael Coughlan, director of Geneva-based World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), told Reuters on Wednesday.

Other scientists warn Papua New Guinea and heavily-populated Southeast Asia are now coming into El Nino's sights. "(Countries) north of Australia should be particularly concerned about this continuing through the spring and summer wet season," said Ian Smith, principal research scientist for Australia's government-backed CSIRO Atmospheric Research.

Weather scientists surveyed by Reuters across Asia agreed that while the 2002 El Nino appeared weak, it had formed on top of drought conditions in various areas stretching from India to eastern Australia. "It's like a double effect," Smith said.

MONSOON FEARS

India is suffering from an erratic monsoon, the lifeblood of its economy, which has led to the worst drought in years. This was ominous for Indonesia and Southeast Asia, said Jim Fox, director of the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at Australian National University. "What happens in India is often a precursor to what is likely to happen in Indonesia," he said.

The vast equatorial archipelago of Indonesia has been boosting rice imports and has allocated funds for cloud seeding to prepare for a possible El Nino drought and unusual floods in the Mekong Delta of main supplier Vietnam. At last count, drought had already caused the loss of 317,300 tonnes of unhusked rice, Indonesia's agriculture ministry said.

"This is likely to increase as the dry season is reaching its peak and, based on reports from BMG (the state meteorology and geophysics agency), the signs of El Nino returning are getting stronger," director Soetarto Alimuso said. Worst hit are the north coast of Java, the main rice bowl, North Sumatra, the main rubber and palm oil area, and leading coffee district Lampung. The 1997/98 El Nino cut Indonesia's output of palm oil, coffee, cocoa and rubber by 25-50 percent, helping to create civil unrest which unseated former president Suharto in 1998.

ASIA PREPARES Tiny East Timor, struggling to consolidate in its first year of independence, fears El Nino will also hit it hard.

"They're in precarious circumstances," CSIRO's Smith said. In Port Moresby, PNG's weather bureau said it was considering advising highlanders to store water.

In the Philippines, one of Asia's largest rice importers, delayed planting because of drought and fear of El Nino has spurred authorities to import 890,000 tonnes this year for buffer stocks, much more than first estimates of 390,000 tonnes. The government has also allocated 2.3 billion pesos (US$44 million) for cloud seeding, irrigation and emergency loans.